[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of NORTH near gale or gale
in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/38W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the ITCZ
from 04N to 09N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/52W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
05N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving into the
area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 05N to the south of Panama, to 11N in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, between 78W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 07N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N24W to 05N37W, 06N42W and 04N50W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
02N to 09N between 10W and 55W, not counting the precipitation
that may be directly related to the tropical waves.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 86W/87W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the middle
Texas coast southward. isolated moderate rainshowers in the Deep
South of Texas, and around the Houston metropolitan area.

A surface trough is in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the surface trough.
Numerous strong rainshowers cover the areas from Honduras to
Mexico, and in parts of the Gulf of Mexico, from 15N to 19N
between 89W and 93W.

Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico,
just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern
Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Depression TWO-E is just
off the coast of Mexico, about 200 nm to the SW of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N84W in the NE corner of the area, to 28N90W, and to
22N95W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVBS.

IFR: KEHC and KIKT.

MVFR: KGBK and KSPR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR and isolated rain in the Deep South, near Brownsville
and Port Isabel. Rain, light and moderate, in the Houston
metropolitan area. Earlier rain in the coastal plains has ended
for the moment. LOUISIANA: Rain, heavy and light, in the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. Lingering rain in Galliano. Earlier
rain in the southern sections has ended for the moment. MISSISSIPPI:
IFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: lingering rain/drizzle in parts of the
Panhandle.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEAand HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from a 23N67W cyclonic circulation
center, across Hispaniola and the Mona Passage, to 15N69W in the
Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea from NW Venezuela to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and
72W. Numerous strong rainshowers in Colombia from 07N to 09N
between 73W and 75W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and a TRACE in Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana:
rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
will transition into northerly wind flow, with time, as the
current trough moves eastward to Puerto Rico, during the first 24
hours of the 48-hour forecast period.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a cyclonic
circulation center is going to be close to the easternmost part
of the Dominican Republic during the next 48 hours. Expect
cyclonic wind flow immediately around the cyclonic center, and NE
wind flow on the fringes to the west of the cyclonic wind flow.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist
of NE and E wind flow for the first half of the day, followed by
cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough. Expect SE wind flow
during day two, with the influence of an east-to-west oriented
ridge, from the Atlantic Ocean along 20N, to Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 30N21W, to 21N32W, and to 10N42W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A cold front passes through 32N52W to 28N54W and 26N60W.
Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 45W and 61W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N25W, through a 1024 mb high pressure center that is
near 30N39W, to 23N59W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the west of the 32N52W 26N60W cold front. A 1023
mb high pressure center is near 29N68W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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