[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301625
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1125 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in the
SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0000 UTC offshore of the coast of Colombia
with near gale to gale force E-NE winds occurring late evening and
early morning through Wednesday night. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
10N16W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
04N19W to the Equator near 29W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-05N between 09W-14W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 06N between 19W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Westerly upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon as a middle to upper level trough moves off the eastern
US seaboard. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed across
the central Florida peninsula from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay and
into the eastern Gulf near 27N85W. While the front continues to
move across the Florida peninsula and eventually E of the
basin...surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered across NE Mexico near 25N101W. Mostly light to gentle
northerly winds are expected through tonight as the high center
begins to shift eastward into Tuesday. By Tuesday...the high is
forecast to be centered across the eastern waters and Florida
peninsula providing light to gentle anticyclonic winds E of 90W
and SE to S gentle to occasional moderate southerly return flow W
of 90W. The ridge is expected to remain in place across the NE
Gulf through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front is analyzed from eastern Cuba near 21N78W SW to
Honduras near 16N86W. The front continues to become diffuse with
only a few isolated showers occurring across central Cuba and from
14N-18N between 84W-88W. While the front remains weak with regards
to convective activity...fresh N-NE winds continue in wake of the
front across the NW Caribbean this afternoon and are expected to
gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Wednesday
morning. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains
fairly tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible
across the far eastern Caribbean and within 90 nm either side of a
line from the Windward Passage to Jamaica to the NW coast of
Panama. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized along this
corridor. These light showers are embedded within moderate to
occasional fresh trade wind flow...with slightly stronger trades
as noted in the Special Features section above expected within the
next 36 to 48 hours in close proximity to the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...
An approaching cold front currently extends to the NW of the
island from the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba. The front continues to
be generally precipitation-free and weaken as it nears the
Windward Passage region by this evening. Remnants of the boundary
will cross Hispaniola on Tuesday with a slight possibility of
isolated showers during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Thereafter...NE to E moderate to occasional fresh winds are
expected as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North
Atlc region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the eastern CONUS and easternUS seaboard with a broad base over
the waters offshore of central Florida. The troughing supports a
series of cold front that continue to originate from a complex and
broad area of low pressure across the NW North Atlc off the New
England and mid-Atlc coast. The eastern-most cold front extends
from 32N64W SW to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N78W and
into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are occurring within
120 nm either side of the front. The secondary front continues to
weaken and the third front extends from a 1005 mb low centered
offshore of the Delmarva near 38N73W. The front enters the
discussion area near 32N76W to the Florida peninsula near Cape
Canaveral. Fresh to strong W to NW winds follow in wake of the
front...with clearing skies noted across the Carolinas...
Georgia...and northern Florida. Farther east...across the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge
prevails anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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