[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 18-hour forecast consists of a first cold front that is to the
SE of the area. A second cold front will be along 28N82W 22N96W
19N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 11 feet, to the south of 22N to the W of the cold
front.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 02N30W and 02N45W.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level Westerly wind flow is moving across the area.
Anticyclonic wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also covers the Gulf
of Mexico. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in
water vapor imagery, from 27N southward.

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, just off the
coast of the Florida Keys, to 23N88W. A stationary front continues
from 23N88W to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 22N95W.
The stationary front continues from the 1014 mb low pressure
center, to 18N94W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR and light rain in the Lower Rio Grande Valley
area. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is covering the Caribbean Sea to the east
of the line that runs from the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia beyond 18N63W.

Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
entire Caribbean Sea, from the eastern section, into the central
Caribbean Sea, and then beyond the NW corner of the area.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for
the period ending at 28/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NE wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an upper level
cyclonic circulation center will be to the south of Puerto Rico.
Northerly wind flow is forecast to move across Hispaniola during
day one. Expect N-to-NW wind flow during day two. The cyclonic
circulation center will open into a trough on top of the islands
that are immediately to the east of Puerto Rico. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during day one. A ridge will move across the area during day
two, bringing anticyclonic wind flow to Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move
across Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast. Expect SE
wind flow during the rest of the forecast time, except for more
anticyclonic wind flow at the end of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the NW Bahamas, just to the
south of the Florida Keys, to 23N88W in the SE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving on top of the
area of the cold front. The wind flow eventually becomes
anticyclonic more downstream, toward the SE. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N59W, to 24N80W.

A deep layer trough is about 1000 nm to the west of Africa. The
trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N32W to 30N32W,
to 23N40W and 21N44W. A dissipating stationary front continues
from 21N44W to 19N55W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 28N northward between 28W and 32W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere within 45 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line from
28N32W to 23N40W 20N45W, and from 16N to 20N between 43W and 54W.

A surface ridge, that is to the east of the frontal boundary,
extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N15W,
to 26N22W, to 16N33W, and 08N41W.

A surface ridge, that is to the west of the frontal boundary,
passes through 32N42W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is
near 27N52W, into the central part of the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net