[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends from southwest Florida to near 23N88W, then
becomes stationary to a 1016 mb low near 21N95W to 18N94W. The
cold front will continue to move slowly southeast, reaching the
Straits of Florida by Saturday morning while the stationary front
will lift north as a warm front across the western Gulf accompanied
by the weak low. Computer model suggests that a new cold front
will enter the Gulf region by Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Northwest gale-force winds and building seas are forecast south
of 25N and west of the front Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N12W to
06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N14W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N
between 24W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb surface low and a frontal boundary extends across the
Gulf region. Please, see the Special Features section above for
details. Doppler radar indicates a few showers in association with
the front across South Florida and regional waters, including the
Florida keys. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northeasterly winds prevailing north of the frontal system, while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are noted south of the
fronts. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low to
move north. The cold front will drift south with isolated showers.
Another frontal boundary will enter the northwest Gulf enhancing
winds/seas through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern tip of a stationary front is over the northeast
Caribbean and extends from the northern Leeward Islands to near
16N67W. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds prevail north
of the front. Patches of low-level clouds with embedded light
showers are noted in association with the frontal boundary
affecting the northern Leeward Islands. Part of this activity is
also reaching the US/UK Virgin Islands. Similar cloudiness is
also noted across the remainder of the basin, mainly south of
Cuba and over the Cayman Islands. The moisture associated with the
weak frontal boundary mentioned before will continue to affect
the northeast Caribbean tonight while it gradually dissipates on
Saturday. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin. Winds will pulse winds to near-gale force at
night near the coast of Colombia. Expect for a cold front to reach
the Yucatan Channel by early Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather and clear skies prevail over the island as strong
subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over
the region. On Saturday, expect some increase in moisture, under
a southeast flow, with the risk of light showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to
26N80W. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is centered near
26N52W. Another cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic
from 31N34W to 28N48W, then a weakening stationary front extends
from that point to 18N63W. Isolated showers are observed along the
northern portion of the front mainly north of 28N. The remainder
of the area is under the influence of another high pressure of
1025 mb located just NW of the Canary Islands near 30N20W. Expect
for the cold front to continue moving east. The next cold front is
expected to move off northeast Florida on Sunday, reaching a
position from 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba by
Saturday afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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