[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the Gulf of Mexico...

Expect W to NW winds 25 knots to 30 knots, with frequent gusts to
gale force, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 20 feet, to
the north of 26N to the east of 87W.

...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front passes through 31N76W to 23N81W. Expect SW gale-force
winds, and sea heights from 8 feet to 16 feet in the open waters,
from 24N to 31N within 90 NM to the E of the cold front.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 05N09W to 05N15W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 02N26W and 03N32W, to the
equator along 39W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate from 02N to 06N between 05W and 13W, from 02N to 08N
between 27W and 50W, and from 04N southward between 50W and 52W
including inland in Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND NW CUBA, INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough has been moving from Louisiana into South
Florida during the last 18 hours. The trough has been supporting
the current cold front, which passes through 32N75W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across the NW Bahamas and NW Cuba, across the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the central coastal areas of
Honduras. Rainshowers and thunder are within 240 nm to the east of
the cold front, mostly from 24N northward, in parts of the Bahamas
and in the Atlantic Ocean. Surface high pressure covers the Gulf
of Mexico from 93W westward.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR...none.

IFR...none.

MVFR...KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: MVFR/VFR in the
south/coastal plains. FLORIDA: MVFR from Cross City northward and
westward, and at the Tampa Executive Airport. light rain in
Marianna. light rain in parts of the metropolitan areas of
St.Petersburg and Clearwater.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving through the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 15N southward from 69W eastward.

Middle level-to-upper level W and NW wind flow is moving through
the area, from 70W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

Rainshowers are possible to the SE of the line 18N60W 16N64W
13N68W.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 23/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.38 in Trinidad, and 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level W-to-NW wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds during the last few
observations. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 30 hours to 36 hours,
followed by a trough during the rest of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the 48-hour
forecast period will start with southerly wind flow for the first
6 hours or so. A trough will move across the area, spreading
cyclonic wind flow during the rest of day one. Expect NW wind flow
across Hispaniola during day two, with a NW Caribbean Sea
anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that day one will start with SW wind flow, in advance of
a trough. The trough will move across Hispaniola during the rest
of day one. The wind flow for day two will be from the NW first,
and then from the N and finally from the NE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting the
a surface trough, that extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center
that is near 32N42W, to 27N45W 23N52W and 22N58W. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between
30W and 50W.

A surface ridge, that is to the east of the central Atlantic
Ocean surface trough. extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center
that is near 33N22W, to 25N31W and 21N38W, and to 14N60W.

A surface ridge is to the west of the surface trough, extending
from a 1018 mb high pressure center is near 26N56W, to 20N68W,
across the easternmost part of the Dominican Republic,
southwestward across the Caribbean Sea, to 08N80W in southern
Panama.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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