[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale-force winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. Gale-force winds will develop north of 22N and west of
90W by early Sunday and prevail through the day. Seas in this
area will range between 9 to 12 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Gale-force winds over the central Atlantic...

A cold front will approach from the northwest. An area of gale-
force winds will develop north of 29N and west of 78W with seas
to 13 ft by Sunday morning. These winds will continue through the
day. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
01N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that
point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of
the Monsoon trough/ITCZ between 12W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Latest surface observations continue to report fog over the
northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 88W. The fog will
dissipate in the late morning hours. Fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds
prevailing across the whole basin. Expect for a cold front to
enter the western Gulf on Saturday. Gale-force winds are expected
to develop across the western Gulf behind the front. Please refer
to the section above for details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of high pressure centered just north of Cuba and extends
across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across most of the basin except north of Honduras south of
18N and west of 83W, where fresh to strong southeasterly winds
prevail. A cold front was analyzed north of Puerto Rico along 19N
with isolated showers. Expect for the winds near Honduras to
continue pulsing through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary
approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The winds will then weaken by
late Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails over the island with 10-15 northeast winds.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb surface high is centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W.
A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to
23N53W to 19N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
east of the front mainly north of 29N and west of 40W. A 1026 mb
surface high is centered over the east Atlantic near 33N27W with
fair weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for central Atlantic
front to move slowly east with convection mainly over the northern
portion of it. An area of gale-force winds will develop over the
west Atlantic. See the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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