[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
06N10W to 06N12W. The intertropical convergence zone extends
from 06N12W to 04N17W. A surface trough is over the tropical
Atlantic from 06N17N to 01N21W. The intertropical convergence
zone axis continues W of the trough from 02N23W to 01N33W to
03N44W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-04N between
00W-07W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
surface trough. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-04N
between 26W-35W, and from 02S-02N between 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered off the coast of N Florida near
30N78W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of
Mexico with strongest winds along the coast of S texas. This
surface flow is maintaining warm temperatures throughout the
Gulf. Patches of scattered showers are over S Florida, the
Straits of Florida, the SE Gulf, and the far W Gulf, all moving
W to NW. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to beyond N Florida. This
overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Tuesday.
The next front is not expected to reach the coast of Texas
Tuesday evening and then stall over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over Puerto Rico advecting in from the
Atlantic. Hispaniola and E Cuba has similar conditions
especially over the upper elevations. More scattered showers are
over Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. In the upper
levels, a small upper level trough is over the W Caribbean with
axis from Costa Rica to E Cuba. The E Caribbean E of 73W has
zonal flow. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.
Expect similar surface wind conditions through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Scattered showers are over the northern portions
of the island especially over higher elevations. Expect showers
to continue through Tuesday while the NE flow persists.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered off the coast of N Florida near
30N78W. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from 21N-27N
between 61W-80W. A cold front is further E extending from 33N65W
to 30N73W to the coast of South Carolina near 33N79W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1007 mb low is centered
over the E Atlantic near 35N35W. A surface trough extends S from
the low to 31N32W to 23N26W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm E of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between
28W-43W supporting the surface trough. Expect over the next 24-
48 hours for the cold front over the W Atlantic to move SE to
the central Atlantic with showers. Also expect the low and
trough system to move E with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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