[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W.
A surface trough curves through 22W/23W from 06N southward. The
ITCZ continues from the equator along 24W, to 01N31W, 2N37W,
and 01N42W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
from 05N southward from 10W eastward, from 03N to 06N between 16W
and 19W, and from 04N southward between 33W and 41W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 46W
and 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, into
Texas, and then across the SE U.S.A. This wind flow is pushing
high level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the
line from the Florida Big Bend, to 27N88W, and 18N92W.

SE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving through the Gulf of
Mexico, in an area of comparatively drier air in subsidence.
The SE wind flow and drier air are to the east of the high level
moisture that is moving through the western sections of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR/VFR in the Lower Valley, with IFR in Edinburg. IFR in
Hebbronville and Falfurrias. MVFR in Alice and at the Kingsville
NAS. IFR in Victoria and Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR
in Galveston. LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Jasper. IFR
from Sugar Land and the Houston metropolitan area to Huntsville.
LOUISIANA: LIFR in the SW and south central sections. LIFR in
Baton Rouge, and surrounding Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI:
LIFR to the south of the line from McComb-to-Hattiesburg.
ALABAMA: LIFR in the southernmost coastal plains. FLORIDA: MVFR
at the NAS Pensacola. IFR in Tallahassee. LIFR in Perry and Cross
City. occasional light rain in Marathon Key during the last few
hours ended one hour ago.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, from Central
America and South America, into the Caribbean Sea, from 14N
southward.

NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea
from 14N northward from 75W eastward.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 14N northward from 75W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water
vapor imagery, spans the Caribbean Sea.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches for the period ending at
15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

The wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is from the NE to E,
across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1800
feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, during most of day one, becoming W wind as
the approaching trough is in the Windward Passage. The trough
moves across Hispaniola during day two, bringing nothing but NW
wind flow with it for the whole day. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the
area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge.
Day two will consist of NORTHERLY wind flow, with Hispaniola being
to the east of an eventual Gulf of Mexico anticyclonic circulation
center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind
flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida/Bahamas-to-
Hispaniola ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N36W 29N36W 24N42W 18N50W
and 15N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is near 32N36W, to 24N40W, to 22N50W. A surface
trough is along 18N46W 13N48W 06N50W. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the east of 08N59W
14N50W 26N40W beyond 32N35W, within 400 nm to the east of the line
on the northern end, and within 1200 nm to the east of the line
on the southern end. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 21N northward in the area of cloudiness. isolated moderate
elsewhere in the area of cloudiness. A cold front is trailing the
1010 mb low pressure center and trough, passing through 32N50W to
31N56W, beyond 32N61W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 29N northward between 45W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from
60W westward.

A surface ridge is to the east of the 1010 mb low pressure
center and trough, along 10N35W 20N31W 28N21W beyond 32N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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