[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The current situation consists of: NE gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 10.5N to 12N
between 74W and 77W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 15/1200 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of a SOUTH gale or near gale, in
FARADAY, ALTAIR, and ACORES, becoming CYCLONIC from south from
IRVING.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian near 04N, to
03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01N20W 02N29W, crossing
the equator along 35W, to 01S41W. A surface trough curves through
17W/19W from 07N southward. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N southward between
08W and 23W. within 60 nm on either side of 05N09W 03N15W, and
from 04N southward between 15W and 22W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 04N southward between 25W and the coast of Brazil,
and from 04N to 10N between 45W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The eastern boundary of upper level anticyclonic wind flow is
moving from Mexico and Texas to the coastal waters, from 24N
northward from 92W westward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area, in the range from 350 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the Gulf
of Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the coastal waters of the
northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Yucatan Channel,
and to NW Cuba.

Rainshowers are possible from 25N southward from 90W westward,
in scattered to broken low level clouds.

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico
near 22N97W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of
southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more
details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KXIH, KVBS, and KEIR.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MVFR/IFR from
Hebbronville/Alice and the middle Texas Gulf coast, to
Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios. LIFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake
Jackson/Galveston. LIFR mostly/some IFR and MVFR elsewhere, from
the Houston metropolitan area to Huntsville. LIFR in Galveston/
Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Patterson and
Boothville. IFR in Galliano. LIFR surrounds Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: Natchez conditions changing from IFR to MVFR to VFR
during the last few observations. LIFR in Hattiesburg. McComb
conditions changing from LIFR to IFR during the last several
observations. Gulfport conditions changing from MVFR to IFR to
MVFR during the last few observations. Pascagoula conditions
changing from LIFR to IFR to VFR during the last few observations.
ALABAMA: LIFR in Gulf Shores. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at
the NAS Pensacola. MVFR in Perry. LIFR conditions span the
Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. IFR in Sarasota. Punta
Gorda conditions changing from LIFR to VFR during the last few
observations.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

NE wind flow, in the level that is from 600 mb to 800 mb, covers
the Caribbean Sea, under the middle level-to-upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 16N60W 15N83W southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
14/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.56 in
Curacao, 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE-to-E.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling at 1200 feet.
Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a trough to the west of Hispaniola.
The wind flow will become W at the end of the 48-hour forecast
period, as the trough becomes closer to the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow will move
across the area during day one, and that anticyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola,
with a Florida-to-central Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 27N45W 22N49W and
16N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 20N52W, to 17N54W and 15N57W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
19N to 30N between 34W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N to 20N between 36W and 55W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from
60W westward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 31N75W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic
Ocean from 15N northward from 40W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net