[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 15
feet, are imminent, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N17W and 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to
01N27W and 01N42W, crossing the equator along 46W, to Brazil near
01S48W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 04N to 06N between 10W and 15W, from 01N
southward between 20W and 23W, and from 05N southward between 43W
and 51W. isolated moderate elsewhere, from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, in the range from 350 mb
to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, across the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico into the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge passes through SW Georgia into SE Louisiana, into
E Texas.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KXIH.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KEHC, KEIR,
and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville. Mostly MVFR, with smaller areas of
IFR, and even smaller areas of LIFR, from Hebbronville, into the
middle Texas Gulf coastal areas, into East Texas, to the Houston
metropolitan area, and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in the SW
corner of the state. LIFR in Boothville. MVFR in Port Fourchon.
Mostly IFR around Lake Pontchartrain, with smaller areas of LIFR
and MVFR. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in McComb. LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA:
LIFR in Mobile. IFR in Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: light rain and LIFR
in Milton. MVFR in Crestview. LIFR in Panama City. MVFR in parts
of the Ft.Myers metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is curving anticyclonically through the
Caribbean Sea, along a line from Nicaragua to the Windward Passage
eastward. Upper level SW wind flow also is moving from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

NE-to-E wind flow, in the level that is from 600 mb to 800 mb,
covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 17N southward between the eastern Caribbean Sea
islands and 80W, and in the NW corner of the area.

A shear line continues from 14N60W, to 11N70W 13N78W, and 11N84W
at the coast of SE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 15N southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.77 in
Curacao, 0.35 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE-to-E.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR.
earlier brief rain in Punta Cana has ended. Santiago: rain. MVFR.
ceiling at 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet.
earlier light rain has ended for the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area, in the
middle of a trough to the east and a ridge to the west.
Anticyclonic wind flow will reach Hispaniola at the end of the
48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida-to-
central Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N51W.
Cyclonic wind flow is within: 320 nm N/120 nm E/500 nm S/
700 nm W, of the center. The upper level cyclonic wind flow
supports an occluded front and two cyclonic circulation centers,
from 21N to 25N between 50W and 56W, and a cold front along
24N50W 20N50W 14N60W. A shear line continues from 14N60W, to
11N70W in the Caribbean Sea, to 13N78W, and 11N84W at the coast of
SE Nicaragua. A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along
25N36W 22N39W 18N42W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 18N to 30N between 35W and 59W.

An upper level trough is along 34N36W to 32N29W to 27N21W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of
the line 26N17W 30N22W 31N32W beyond 32N35W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure center that
is near 35N65W, to 32N75W, beyond SW Georgia. An eastern Atlantic
Ocean surface ridge is along 16N37W 24N31W beyond 32N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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