[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A stationary front is along 31N55W to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is near 27N55W. A cold front continues to 24N52W and
17N62W. N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 16
feet to 23 feet, are present from 26N to 31N between between 57W
and 62W.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A shear line is along 17N62W to 15N72W. NE gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet, are imminent from
from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 78W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to the equator
along 23W, to 04S30W and 04S37W. A surface trough is along 32W/33W
from 04N southward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 02N to 04N between 08W and 12W. widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 04N between 28W and 42W.
isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward between 44W
and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf
of Mexico from 93W eastward. Middle level to upper level westerly
wind flow is moving from Texas to Florida, across the coastal
waters of the U.S.A. in the Gulf of Mexico. The westerly wind flow
merges with the anticyclonic wind flow from 93W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in Mexico from 23N
southward, moving into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in much of the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW corner
of the area, and in the coastal waters from south central
Louisiana to 27N along the Texas coast.

A surface ridge cuts across the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-to-SW
line.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVAF, and KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Harlingen and Weslaco, from the NAS in Corpus
Christi, toward the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding
smaller cities, to Huntsville, and in Jasper. LOUISIANA: VFR.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez and McComb. ALABAMA: IFR in
Evergreen. MVFR in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA:
MVFR in Milton.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level-to-lower level anticyclonic wind flow, from 600 mb
to 800 mb, is moving across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, into the
central sections of the Caribbean Sea, and to Central America. SE
wind flow covers Central America from Nicaragua to the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Middle level-to- upper level NE-to-E wind
flow is moving across Cuba and across the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

Upper level SW wind flow is curving anticyclonically across the
Caribbean Sea between 60W and Nicaragua. Middle level-to-upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 67W westward.
Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is moving
toward the Atlantic Ocean 26N54W cyclonic circulation center,
covers the area from 67W eastward.

A shear line continues from 17N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
15N67W and 14N73W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are
possible within 60 nm on either side of 20N55W 17N61W 16N66W
17N70W. isolated moderate from 10N to 15N from 80W westward,
in the coastal waters of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
12/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.97 in
Curacao, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area. Middle
level-to-lower level anticyclonic wind flow, from 600 mb to
800 mb, is moving across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. earlier light
rain has ended for the moment. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1800
feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow, with a
ridge, will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow, between a
trough to the east and a ridge to the west, will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that NE wind flow, around a ridge, will move across
Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N54W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N between
49W and 63W. A stationary front passes through 32N54W, to a 1009
mb low pressure center that is near 27N55W. A cold front continues
from the 1009 mb low pressure center, to 25N53W 22N53W, and to
17N61W. A shear line continues from 17N61W to 15N67W and 14N73W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong from 20N northward between 48W and 55W.
Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of 20N55W
17N61W 16N66W 17N70W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N36W to 23N23W. A surface
trough is along 31N36W 27N38W 26N41W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360 nm to the
NE of the line 21N17W beyond 32N32W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N22W to 28N26W, 21N29W, and
20N49W, to the east of the 1009 mb low pressure and frontal
boundary. A surface ridge passes through 32N72W beyond NE
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the 1009 mb low
pressure center and frontal boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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