[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A stationary front is along 31N56W 19N68W. NE Gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, are present to
the S of 22.5N between 68W and 72W.

The 12-hour forecast consists of the stationary front from 31N55W
to a developing 1016 mb low pressure center to be near 27N56W. A
cold front will trail from the low pressure center to 18N66W.
Expect NE Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet
to 16 feet, and building to 16 feet to 22 feet, to the N of 28N to
the W of the front to 62W.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A stationary front passes through the Mona Passage to SE
Nicaragua. NE Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8
feet to 13 feet, are to the N of 14N between 74W and 78W. A second
warning area consists of NE Gale-force winds, and sea heights
reaching 11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 77W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and
the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast, later, for
the area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 11/1200 UTC, consists of:
the persistence of near gale or gale in AGADIR and TARFAYA.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of southern
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N15W, and 06N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N16W, to 01N20W, to the equator along 25W, to
01N34W, to the equator along 37W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to the south of 10N14W 10N30W 07N40W 06N53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N92W. It is
surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence, in water
vapor imagery. Middle level-to-upper level SE-to-S wind flow is
moving from the Yucatan Peninsula to the area of the 26N92W
cyclonic circulation center. Upper level NW wind flow covers the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico that is to the NE of the area of the
26N92W cyclonic circulation center.

A surface trough extends from the deep south of Texas to 23N96W
and 18N95W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to
broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 26N
southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through eastern Georgia, to the Florida
Panhandle, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to 23N93W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Slidell. from
MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: LIFR in Perry.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts through the Caribbean Sea, across
Hispaniola, to 16N78W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, to the N and NW of the line that
passes through: the Mona Passage, to 15N78W and 14N83W. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the trough. Middle
level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is to the W and NW of
the trough, across the area of the drier air in subsidence. A
stationary front passes through the Mona Passage to 11N84W at the
coast of SE Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within 60 nm on either side of the stationary front.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.04 in
Curacao, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, is moving across
the area. Middle level to upper level NE wind flow, from 350 mb to
500 mb, also is moving across Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible
across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. MVFR.
earlier ceiling at 1600 feet has broken up for the moment. La
Romana: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Punta Cana:
MVFR. ceiling at 1700 feet. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling
at 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain. VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that N wind flow will move
across the area during day one. N-to-NE wind flow will move
across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the
next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving across Bermuda to 24N65W, to
Hispaniola. The trough is supporting a stationary front that
passes through 32N55W to 27N60W, to the Mona Passage. Convective
precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate within 60 nm
to 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N56W to
26N60W, to the Mona Passage.

An upper level trough passes through 32N35W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 24N38W, to 15N43W, to
05N47W. A surface trough is along 31N32W 24N36W 15N41W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 20N northward between 30W and 43W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the east of
30N25W 10N43W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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