[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST SUN JAN 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A cold front is currently analyzed across the SW North Atlc and
western Caribbean Sea from 32N65W S-SW to eastern Cuba near 20N76W
to the northern coast of Honduras near 16N87W and supported aloft
by a middle to upper level trough axis extending from over the
mid-Atlc coastal waters near 37N74W S-SW to over the southern
Florida peninsula near 27N82W. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds prevail W of the front across portions of the SW North Atlc
and NW Caribbean Sea...while near gale to gale force winds are
expected to materialize in the Windward Passage region and areas
downwind of the N-NE flow to the E of Jamaica by 09/1800 UTC. This
gap wind flow is expected to persist through Tuesday. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N19W to 03N30W to the Equator near 38W. Isolated moderate
convection is from the Equator to 07N between the Prime Meridian
and 09W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between
20W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough axis extends from over the southern Florida
peninsula SW to over southern Mexico near 18N96W and into the
eastern Pacific region. While the surface frontal boundary
associated with this upper level troughing has moved east of the
basin...strong high pressure to the W of the front continues to
provide strong to near gale force NE winds across portions of the
SE Gulf waters...while moderate to fresh NE to E winds continue
elsewhere. The ridging in place is anchored by a pair of strong
1043 mb high centered over the Ohio River and lower Mississippi
River valleys this evening. In addition...a 1040 mb high is also
centered across east-central Mexico near 22N98W. Finally...
overnight into Monday SE return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself across the NW Gulf and gradually spread eastward through
Monday night. A surface ridge axis is expected to extend from
offshore of the Carolinas near 32N74W SW to 23N98W through
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 68W between an upper level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level ridge over the
eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 12N68W N-NE to beyond
25N60W. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from eastern
Cuba near 20N76W SW to northwestern Honduras near 15N88W. Widely
scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the
front generally W of 80W. W of the front...strong to near gale
N-NE winds prevail with the area of developing gale force winds
expected in the Windward Passage region by Monday afternoon.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere with
slightly stronger...fresh to strong...trades occurring within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama. The
front is expected to continue gradually moving eastward through
mid-week with fresh to strong NE to E winds prevailing W of the
front as it becomes diffuse by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
A cold front lies to the NW of the island this evening analyzed
from the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba and into the western Caribbean
Sea. Near gale to gale force N-NE winds are forecast to develop in
the Windward Passage region and areas to the E of Jamaica by
Monday afternoon into evening with the frontal passage.
Otherwise...cloudiness will increase with the approach of the
front as well as the probability of isolated showers. By Monday
night...winds will remain brisk...however skies will begin to
improve into Tuesday as high pressure builds across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough continues to move off of the
eastern U.S. seaboard this evening in support of a cold front
analyzed from 32N65W SW to the SE Bahamas then to eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N within
90 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...strong to near gale
force northerly winds follow in wake of the front as high pressure
anchored itself across the SE and mid-Atlc regions of the CONUS.
The front is expected to move eastward through Tuesday night when
cyclogenesis is forecast to occur in the vicinity of 28N57W. The
associated low pressure area is expected to drift southward
through the remainder of the week and possibly impact the Lesser
Antilles by next weekend. Otherwise...the central Atlc is under
the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
35N43W. The ridge axis extends SW from the high to 25N62W.
Lastly...a broad middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery over the eastern Atlc centered near 30N28W. The upper
level low continues to support a nearly collocated 1011 mb
surface low centered near 29N27W. A few isolated showers and
possible tstms are occurring N of 30N between 16W-31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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