[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EST WED JAN 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 05N12W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 04N25W to
00N38W. Isolated showers are observed along these boundaries
between 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper-level ridge extends across the basin. At the surface,
a dissipating stationary front extends across the Gulf from
24N94W to 29N83W. A cold front is entering the northwest portion
of the basin extending from 28N97W to 29N92W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate westerly winds north of 27N, while
light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N. Expect during the next
24 hours for the cold front over the northwest Gulf to continue
moving southeast enhancing winds/seas. The weakening frontal
boundary will dissipate. A surface ridge will build in the wake of
the cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the entire
Caribbean basin. At the surface, the pressure gradient generated
by the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower
pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds over the central sections of the basin.
Light to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Little change in the
overall pattern is expected over the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough extending across
the eastern portion of the island. Cloudiness and isolated
showers are observed over this area and adjacent coastal waters. The
trough is expected to move east away from the island during the
next 24 hours. A drying trend will prevail after that.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends north of 30N and west of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front
affecting the western Atlantic mainly north of 27N and west of
70W. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the central
Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N55W. A cold front
extends from 27N55W to 27N40W to 31N31W. Isolated showers are
observed along this front. A surface trough extends from 25N30W
to 31N22W with no significant convection. Expect for the fronts
to continue moving east during the next 24 hours with convection
mainly along the front in the west Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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