[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to
13 feet from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, to be ending during
the next hour or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 02/1200 UTC, consists of: the
persistence of a cyclonic near gale or gale, from 30N northward.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through southern coastal sections of
Liberia, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N23W,
02N34W, and 02N38W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 04N to 05N between 29W and 34W, and from 04N to
05N between 42W and 49W. isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward, mostly from 07N
southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
High level moisture is within 200 nm of the U.S.A. coast,
between 87W and 98W.

Rainshowers are possible in the east central Gulf of Mexico,
from 24N to 28N from 90W eastward, in scattered-to-broken low
clouds.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge
extends from NE Florida toward the SW corner of the area.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KGRY and KEIR.

MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KVAF, KGUL, KHQI, KGHB, KSPR,
KIKT, KVOA, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. rain in the middle
Texas Gulf coast. IFR in Victoria. MVFR in Port Lavaca. MVFR in
Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR from Galveston to
Beaumont/ Port Arthur and Jasper. IFR/MVFR from the Houston
metropolitan area to Conroe and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: IFR in the
SW corner. LIFR in the south central coastal plains. MVFR in the
SE coastal plains. IFR/LIFR and rain from Baton Rouge to the area
that is around Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR from Natchez
to the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. IFR/MVFR and rain in the
southernmost/coastal plains. ALABAMA: LIFR from Dothan to
Evergreen. Rain from Dothan to Evergreen southward, to the
southernmost/coastal plains. MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR
and rain and thunder from Marianna-to-NW Panama City westward.
MVFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle level NE-to-E wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
eastward. Middle level SE wind flow covers the area that is from
15N northward from Jamaica westward. Middle level E-to-NE wind
flow is from 16N northward around Hispaniola.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 70W westward.

Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
to the north and northeast of the line 15N83W 15N70W 12N68W.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N between 83W and 86W, in
southern sections of Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 11N southward from 80W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
01/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving on top of middle level easterly
wind flow that is across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire
area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland,
and in the coastal waters, in areas of scattered to broken low
level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Rain and clouds from
a few observations ago have ended and broken up for the moment.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling
at 1400 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-
Nicaragua-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow
across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center that will
move around Cuba will bring anticyclonic wind flow across the
area during the first 12 hours of the 48-hour forecast, followed
by mostly NE wind flow, with a bit more anticyclonic wind flow
right at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across
Hispaniola, during the next 48 hours, with an Atlantic Ocean
anticyclonic circulation center and a ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean.
The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N46W
to 27N51W and 25N58W. The front becomes stationary from 25N58W to
23N67W, to the SE Bahamas near 23N74W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate within 240 nm to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N41W 26N50W 22N60W, and from 20N to 25N between 60W and
77W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N
northward between Africa and 30W. An upper level trough is along
28N37W to 22N38W 16N42W and 12N50W. A cold front passes through
32N24W to 28N34W and 31N39W. The cold front is marked by a cloud
boundary, with possible rainshowers along it and behind it, to the
north of the line that passes through 32N22W 27N30W 27N40W 29N42W.
Thin high level clouds are from 23N to 30N between 20W and 40W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward to the two separate frontal boundaries, between 30W and
54W. Surface high pressure also is to the N and NW of the cold
front/stationary front, between 50W and the SE U.S.A.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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