[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 300601
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew
during the past few hours.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern
eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt
from the SFMR instrument.  In addition, the central pressure has
fallen to 979 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 85 kt.  This also requires significant changes to the
intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major
hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours.  It
is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the
revised forecast could be conservative.

There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous
regular advisory.

It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the
aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the
tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance
over the southern semicircle.  Based on this, no warnings are
required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time.  A warning
might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center
moves to the south of the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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