[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 262323
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands are gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph.
Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the
northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this
system.  Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty
winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over
the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles
beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of
Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores.  This system
is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before
regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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