[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave just has
reached the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 09N to 12N between
18W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong within 30 nm on either side of 15N41W 15N45W
12N46W 10N48W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough and its related
cyclonic wind flow. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within 30 nm on either side of 18N56W 17N58W 14N64W. This
precipitation is strung out along a NE-to-SW line.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 09N15W, 10N27W, 10N36W, to 08N41W, to 07N44W,
and 08N47W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 02N
to 13N between 08W and 37W, and elsewhere from 03N to 17N
between 37W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts through south Texas. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 25N in Mexico to 30N in Texas, between 96W
in the Gulf of Mexico and 100W inland.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Florida Panhandle/NW Florida. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving
around the cyclonic center covers the Gulf of Mexico, Florida,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 77W and the
Bahamas and 92W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the southern
part of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KMZG.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: heavy rain in Hebbronville. thunder and rain in the
middle Texas coast area/Corpus Christi area, overall from 25N in
Mexico to 30N in Texas, between 96W in the Gulf of Mexico and
100W. IFR in Port Lavaca. light rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur.
LIFR in Huntsville. earlier rain and thunder in Galveston.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
in MISSISSIPPI and in ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: earlier
rain and thunder in Perry, at the MacDill AFB, and in Sarasota.
rain and thunder in Brooksville.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 70W,with the
Atlantic Ocean to Caribbean Sea trough.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.11 in Bermuda;
and 0.10 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough passes through 20N68W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in
southern sections of Hispaniola from 17N to 19N between 70W and
73W, and in SE coastal Cuba. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 17N to 20N between 73W and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds as of 26/0200 UTC. FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: rain and thunder as of
26/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings rain and thunder
were being reported during the last observations. La Romana:
VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceilings. Santiago: MVFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings. rain
and thunder in an earlier observation.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that broad cyclonic wind
flow will move across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. There
will be some periods of variable winds, but everything still
will be generally cyclonic in nature. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that NW wind flow will be moving across the area at
the start of day one. Hispaniola will be in the middle of a NE-
to-SW oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough, and an
anticyclonic circulation center that will be off the coast of SW
Haiti. The trough will push southwestward and be directly on top
of Hispaniola for a six-hour period, followed by a cyclonic
circulation center across the area. SW wind flow will cover
Hispaniola for the last 12 hours or so of day one. Hispaniola
will be to the north of a NE-to-SW oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea ridge. Expect anticyclonic wind flow for all of
day two, as the ridge pushes across Hispaniola and settles there.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow
will cover the area, with an inverted trough, during day one.
Day two consists of the inverted trough remaining across the
Windward Passage. Expect mostly SE wind flow, with some cyclonic
wind flow at times.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Florida Panhandle/NW Florida. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving
around the cyclonic center covers the Gulf of Mexico, Florida,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 77W and the
Bahamas and 92W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N65W to 30N67W, 26N69W,
to 20N68W, and to 13N65W in the southeastern part of the
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 76W/77W from Cuba to
31N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from
20N and Cuba northward from 70W westward. A cold front/
stationaryfront/dissipating cold front passes through 32N60W to
a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 33N67W to 31N70W
beyond 32N76W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N50W to 29N51W and 25N56W.
A surface trough is along 33N51W to 29N55W 27N59W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N between 50W
and 65W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N34W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 23N to 32N between 25W
and 40W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 30N42W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 28N
to 31N between 39W and 42W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between Africa and 40W. A surface ridge
passes through a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
32N29W, to 24N40W, 24N50W, and 22N65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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