[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 241437
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

The convective burst that occurred overnight has separated from the
low-level center of Lisa and is now nearly dissipated.  This leaves
Lisa as a tight swirl of low-level clouds once again.  An ASCAT-B
pass around 1200 UTC indicated that maximum winds were close to 40
kt, but given the degradation of the cloud pattern since the pass
the initial wind speed is set at 35 kt.  This makes Lisa a tropical
storm again.  Even though Lisa is a little stronger than estimated
earlier, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one.  Continued strong shear and dry air should cause a gradual
decay of the cyclone, and Lisa will likely become a remnant low by
tonight.  The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant
low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it becomes
absorbed by a cold front.

Lisa is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the
next 24 hours as Lisa remains steered by a high pressure system to
its north.  A motion more toward the north is forecast to occur on
Sunday as the high shifts eastward to near the Azores.  Only small
adjustments were made to the previous NHC track prediction, and it
lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 24.7N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 25.7N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1200Z 27.4N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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