[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 240858
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

A strong burst of convection has recently formed in the northeastern
quadrant of Lisa. Overall, however, the system looks less organized
than it did yesterday, with the low-level circulation becoming
elongated from north to south.  The initial wind speed is held at 30
kt in agreement with the TAFB satellite classification. Although
there is only limited skill in forecasting deep convection, this
burst is expected to be ephemeral due to strong shear and dry air
aloft.  Thus, Lisa is still forecast to be a remnant low by this
evening.  The global models show Lisa weakening and opening up into
a trough within 2 days, and so will the NHC prediction.

The initial motion is a bit faster than earlier, now 315/08.  Lisa,
or its remnants, are still forecast to move west-northwestward,
with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves
around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the
Azores.  The official forecast is close to the previous one and the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 23.8N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 24.6N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/0600Z 26.0N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 28.0N  42.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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