[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 30.8N 65.1W at 24/0300 UTC
or about 91 nm south of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A cluster of moderate
convection extends from 29N-34N between 63W-68W. Please see the
latest NHC Public Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 23.2N 37.3W at 24/0300
UTC or about 865 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An area
of moderate convection has developed to the north of the system's
center extending from 25N-29N between 33W-37W. Please see the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 13N20W to 05N20W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 18 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted
by global guidance and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Cloudiness and
isolated showers are observed in the wave's environment between
04N-13N.

A tropical wave is in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 19N52W to 12N52W, moving west near 15 kt over
the past 18 hours. This wave position coincides with a 700 mb
trough noted in global models and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water imagery. Isolated
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave, mainly
north of 17N between 50W-53W.

A tropical wave extends across the southern portion of the Bay of
Campeche into the EPAC with axis from 20N93W to 12N94W, moving
west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. This wave is embedded
within an area of moisture as seen on the Total Perceptible Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails inland over
southern Mexico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W to 09N21W to 08N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm north of the Monsoon Trough between
28W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving over the
southern waters of the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level ridge anchored over
southeast Texas covers the northwest Gulf of Mexico while an
upper-level low centered over southern Georgia extends its trough
into the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge axis extends across
the basin anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 29N90W. A
surface trough extends over the Florida Peninsula with isolated
convection. Some of this activity is reaching the eastern Gulf
mainly south of 26N and east of 86W. Scatterometer data depicts a
light to gentle easterly flow across the basin. Expect for the
surface ridge to prevail through the next 24 hours. The tropical
wave will continue moving over the EPAC with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low-level trough is enhancing convection across the western
Caribbean west of 81W affecting portions of Honduras, Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is observed over
the remainder of the basin at this time as a surface ridge extends
over the area anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the area except south
of 14N between 69W-73W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect
a similar weather pattern to continue through the next 24 hours. A
tropical wave will approach from the east enhancing convection
over the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the
end of the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper-
level low will coupled with the easterly trade winds and enhance
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S Karl, T.D. Lisa, and two tropical waves are moving across the
basin. Please refer to the sections above for details. A surface
trough extends across the western Atlantic from 28N81W to 32N76W.
Isolated convection is observed along this boundary. A stationary
1016 mb surface high is centered east of the trough near 29N75W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a pair of 1026 mb highs centered near 33N43W and
32N26W. T.S. Karl is expected to briefly become a hurricane within
the next 24 hours as it accelerates northeastward. T.D. Lisa will
continue along a northwestward track becoming a post-tropical/remnant
low within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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