[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 240248
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

Lisa continues to suffer from strong vertical wind shear. There has
been no deep convection within 120 nm of the center for nearly 12
hours now, though occasional bursts of convection have been noted a
little farther than that to the north.  A 2324 ASCAT-B pass showed
several 35-kt wind vectors between the center and the convection
farther to the north.  Based on this new information, it is believed
that Lisa was still a tropical storm at the time of the previous
advisory and at 0000 UTC.  Given the lack of deep convection since
that time, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Regardless
of the maximum winds, the dynamical guidance all suggest that the
strong shear and dry mid- and upper-level air will continue to
suppress convection near the center, and Lisa is forecast to be
declared post-tropical within 12 hours. The remnant circulation
should last a day or two after that, before dissipating ahead of a
deep-layer trough approaching from the west.

The depression may finally be beginning to speed up, and the initial
motion estimate is 315/07.  The low-level remnants of Lisa are
still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn
toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery
of the subtropical high centered near the Azores.  The official
forecast has again been nudged westward, but lies a little to the
right of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 23.2N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 23.9N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/0000Z 25.0N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1200Z 26.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 28.8N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
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