[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 232033
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

All of the deep convection has been removed far from the center of
Lisa by continued strong southwesterly shear of around 40 kt.  The
initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  At this point, with a combination of
strong shear, marginal SSTs and a drying mid-level atmosphere, it
seems unlikely that Lisa will regain organized deep convection, so
remnant low status is now indicated by 24 hours.  The weak cyclone
should dissipate by 72 hours in fast southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching deep-layer trough.

The initial motion has been rather slow today, and is currently
estimated as 310/06.  The increasingly shallow cyclone is expected
to turn west-northwestward tonight and then recurve between 36 and
48 hours as the deep-layer trough approaches from the west.  The new
NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one after
12 hours, reflecting a westward shift in the guidance that is
probably responding to Lisa's weakening.  This forecast is close to
the middle of the guidance envelope and near the latest guidance
from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 22.5N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 23.4N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 24.4N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 26.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 27.9N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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