[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 231739
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THE CENTER OF KARL A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 65.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 65.3 West.  Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the
east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Karl is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185
km) from the center.

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure
has decreased to 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today
and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are
expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Sullivan/Berg
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