[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 220842
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016

Although Karl's cloud pattern is better organized than 24 hours ago,
the cyclone lacks an inner core, and there is no new data or
intensity estimates suggesting that the winds have increased. Thus,
the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Karl is heading toward even
warmer waters, and the shear is expected to be light for the next
day or two. These conditions should favor some slight strengthening
during that period. Model guidance suggests that additional
intensification will likely occur after Karl's recurvature in a
couple of days. This is reflected in the NHC forecast which
bring Karl to hurricane status as it moves northeastward over the
open Atlantic, and before it becomes extratropical.

Karl continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 14
kt.  The cyclone is about to reach the southwestern edge of the
subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force Karl to turn
northward in about a day or so. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected
to turn sharply toward the northeast while it becomes embedded
within the southwesterly flow associated with an amplifying
mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast follows very closely
the multimodel consensus, and is in the middle of the guidance
envelope, which in fact is tightly packed at least for the next 3
days.

Although Karl is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic
southeast of Bermuda, interests in that island should monitor
the progress of Karl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 24.0N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 25.3N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 27.0N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 29.3N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 31.5N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 36.5N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 47.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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