[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 17.5N 32.2W at 21/0900 UTC
or about 480 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 15N-22N between 25W-33W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 20.2N 57.6W at 21/0900
UTC or about 305 nm NE of the Leeward Islands and about 820 nm
SSE of Bermuda moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-25N
between 52W-58W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N76W to 19N77W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the western
Caribbean Sea and is embedded within an area of maximum low-level
moisture as noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is
expected to remain beneath the influence of an upper level low
noted on water vapor imagery centered near 16N75W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 16N-20N between 75W-80W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between
71W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
14N18W to 12N22W then from 10N35W to 05N44W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N44W to 03N51W. Aside from
convection associated with Tropical Storm Lisa...scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 09W-13W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 19W-25W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 26W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W
and an upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
eastern Gulf near 25N87W. Given the southwesterly flow aloft
between the two upper level features...moisture and cloudiness
prevail across much of the southern portion of the basin with
isolated showers and tstms occurring generally S of 25N and some
of the convective activity focused on broad surface trough
analyzed from 23N93W to 29N89W. This convection is occurring from
26N-28N between 90W-94W. The surface trough is expected to drift
westward through early Thursday with primarily gentle to moderate
cyclonic winds in close proximity to the boundary. Thursday and
beyond...surface ridging is expected to build in across the SE
CONUS and northern Gulf with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevailing through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A very broad upper level low is centered over the central
Caribbean near 16N75W and stretches NNW to over Cuba and eastward
to 17N65W. Water vapor imagery indicates much of the moisture
embedded within this upper level low is focused over Jamaica and
the adjacent coastal waters and portions of the SW Caribbean.
Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 12N-20N
between 76W-85W including portions of inland Nicaragua and far
eastern Honduras. Across the SW Caribbean...scattered showers and
strong tstms are occurring S of 12N between 74W-78W as the
Monsoon Trough axis extends along 10N between northern Colombia
and Costa Rica. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh trades
persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining
across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers continue to diminish across the island this
morning as a tropical wave along 76W moves westward. Easterly
flow aloft persists within the northern periphery of an upper
level low centered over the central Caribbean near 16N75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The remnant low of Julia centered across eastern North Carolina
is analyzed as a 1012 mb low with a surface trough extending S-SW
to 30N78W then SW to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 27N-30N between
79W-81W. Otherwise...Tropical Storm Karl lies to the SE of an
upper level low centered near 23N64W. Moisture and cloudiness
associated with the upper level low is generating isolated showers
and tstms well away from the center of Karl from 20N-28N between
61W-69W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered near 35N45W and a 1023 mb high centered S of the
Azores near 34N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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