[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near 20.1N 55.2W
at 20/2100 UTC moving westward, or 275 degrees at 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within
180 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Karl is expected to
gradually intensify over the next several days. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lisa was located near 16.4N 31.0W at 20/2100 UTC.
moving northwestward, or 315 degrees at 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained winds
have increased to 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered
moderate to strong convection was noted within 180 nm of the
center of Lisa in the N and within 90 nm in the S semicircles.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate
convection was noted over the Caribbean from 15N to 23N between
67W and 80W. More concentrated activity was located over
Hispaniola.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Mauritania
near 16N17W to near 13N20W, and is rather diffuse along 07N30W
07N40W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from
07N to 10N between 23W and 27W. Isolated moderate convection was
noted from 05N to 07N between 32W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center was located just to the
west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico near
17N95W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N southward
between western Guatemala and 100W. An upper level shear axis was
noted over the NW Gulf extending from southeastern Louisiana to
near Tampico Mexico. Strong mid-to upper level subsidence was
noted along and to the NW of the shear axis along the coast of
Texas and Louisiana. Weak anticyclonic flow was noted over the
remainder of the Gulf. At the surface...a weak 1014 mb low was
centered near 27N88W and was in the process of dissipating.
the low was located along a surface trough which extended
from near Cedar Key Florida through the low to near 22N96W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted over the Bay of
Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula. isolated thunderstorms have
developed along the Texas coastal plain between Houston and Corpus
Christi.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large elongated upper level cyclonic circulation covers most of
the Caribbean Sea with the broad center extending from southeast
Cuba to 15N66W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted
over interior portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and over orographically
favored regions in central America.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W beyond 86W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong convection was noted from
10N to 12N between 78W and 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just off the SE
coast of Jamaica. Upper level SE wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola.

A surface trough is along 73W/74W, from 19N to 23N, cutting
across the SE Bahamas and into the Windward Passage. A tropical
wave also is along 73W/74W from 18N southward, moving westward 10
to 15 knots.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N75W to 31N79W. A surface trough
continues from 31N79W across north-central Florida to near Cedar
Key.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 36N57W, to
the north of the area. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around
this center reaches 32N. A surface trough is along 32N64W to
30N64W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N62W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N to 29N between 57W
and 67W. Widely scattered moderate in the area of cyclonic wind
flow from 21N northward. Tropical Storm Karl is about 310 nm to
the ESE of this feature.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between Africa and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
COBB
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