[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 18.3N 46.3W at 19/0300 UTC
or about 890 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 17N-21N between 42W-47W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia is centered near 32.2N 78.4W at
19/0300 UTC or about 95 nm S-SE of Myrtle Beach South Carolina and
about 170 nm S-SW of Cape Lookout North Carolina moving NW at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is from 30N-32N between 76W-78W. See latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 08N24W to 19N24W moving W at 5-10 kt. A
1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad low-level monsoonal
gyre from 08N-21N between 17W-35W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-17N between 19W-29W. See the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N65W to 21N64W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the Caribbean
Sea between 65W-76W and is embedded within an area of maximum
low-level moisture as noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery.
The wave is expected to remain on the eastern periphery of an
upper level low noted on water vapor imagery centered near 14N68W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-16N between 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to
13N24W to 10N36W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical wave along 24W...widely scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-11N between 11W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level ridge anchored over western Mexico extends a ridge
axis eastward over the Gulf basin through 26N97W to over the
northern Florida peninsula near 29N82W. The ridging aloft supports
a pair of high pressure centers...one a 1017 mb high centered near
27N86W and the other a 1015 mb high centered near 28N93W. Water
vapor imagery also indicates a middle to upper level shortwave
trough moving over the lower Mississippi River valley this evening
that is supportive of a weak surface trough boundary analyzed from
30N90W to 27N91W generally in the area between the two surface
highs. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across a portion
of the north-central Gulf waters N of 25N between 88W-92W. Given
the overall tranquil conditions with high pressure in place...
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the eastern Caribbean near
14N68W that supports surface trough analyzed from 14N68W through
the Mona Passage to 20N67W. Isolated showers are occurring from
14N-19N between 65W-70W...including portions of Puerto Rico this
evening. To the immediate east...a tropical wave is noted along
65W that falls beneath the eastern periphery of the upper level
low. Low-level moisture convergence and middle to upper level
lifting dynamics are supporting isolated showers and tstms across
the eastern Caribbean S of 16N between 61W-68W. Otherwise...
farther west...an upper level ridge is anchored over the western
Caribbean near 15N83W with ample diffluence aloft generating
scattered showers and tstms across portions of northern
Nicaragua...Honduras...El Salvador...and the Gulf of Honduras
waters S of 17N W of 84W. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh
trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally
remaining across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are noted across portions of the island as an
upper level low is centered across the Caribbean Sea near 14N68W.
A surface trough is analyzed north-south across the Mona Passage
and is expected to drift west across the island on Monday.
Immediately following the upper level low...a tropical wave along
65W will continue to provide increased cloudiness and higher
probabilities of precipitation through the first half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Aside from Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia in the SW North Atlc...a
broad area of weaker surface pressures are noted focused on a
surface trough analyzed from 31N60W SW to 28N67W to 23N72W.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring in the vicinity of
29N64W with isolated showers and tstms occurring elsewhere N of
26N between 57W-66W...and from 27N-32N between 70W-78W.
Otherwise...aside from Tropical Storm Karl and the special
features tropical wave along 24W...the remainder of the central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered well north of the discussion
area near 43N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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