[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 190240
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Strong shear and dry mid-level air have continued to take a toll on
Julia today.  The cyclone has become an exposed swirl of low clouds
devoid of significant deep convection for more than 12 hours. Based
on this, Julia is being designated a post-tropical remnant low, and
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.  The initial
wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT
data, but this could be generous.  The cyclone may produce some
disorganized thunderstorms during the overnight convective maximum
period, but increasing southwesterly shear on Monday should limit
any organization or persistence of the activity.  The low should
gradually spin down and dissipate in a couple of days.

Julia is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A turn toward the
north is expected overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving into
the southeastern United States.  After that time, the remnant low
is forecast to meander over eastern North Carolina until
dissipation occurs.

Moisture from the remnants of Julia are expected to interact
with a frontal boundary moving into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
United States.  This is likely to produce local heavy rainfall from
eastern North Carolina northward to the northeastern U.S. during
the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 32.2N  78.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  19/1200Z 33.2N  78.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z 34.4N  77.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 34.9N  77.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 35.1N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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