[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 180850
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback. Thunderstorm activity
has fired near and southeast of the center, with the cyclone looking
considerably better organized than any time in the last day or so.
The initial wind speed is kept at 25 kt in line with the TAFB
satellite classification.

The future of Julia looks less clear than it did yesterday.  While
there is currently strong shear affecting the cyclone, this shear
is forecast to relax in about 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level
trough moves over the southeastern United States.  Considering the
current appearance of Julia and the more favorable environment
ahead of it, Julia is no longer forecast to become a remnant low.
Instead, a more likely scenario is that Julia holds its own or
strengthens some while it moves slowly northward near the Gulf
Stream. It is best to be conservative with the intensity forecast at
this stage, since this overnight convective trend could be
misleading. Nonetheless, the intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, on the low side of the guidance near the LGEM model.

Julia has started moving north-northwestward overnight at about 4
kt. A slow motion toward the north is expected for the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves between a weak west Atlantic
subtropical ridge and the southeastern United States trough.  The
model guidance has shifted northward near the North Carolina
coast, although the GFDL and ECMWF remain offshore.  Given the
uncertainty and continuity constraints, it would be preferable to
wait another model cycle before making a larger northward change,
and hence the current forecast is on the southern side of the
guidance envelope. It would not be surprising if further northward
changes have to be made later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 31.3N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 31.8N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 32.4N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 33.3N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 33.7N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 33.5N  77.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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