[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 180232
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very
attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate
advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression
in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated
with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm
activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the
past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the
second option.

Strong upper-level northerly winds are expected to continue
affecting the circulation, and if the convection returns it will
quickly be removed from the center. Therefore, Julia is forecast
once again to become a remnant low soon and gradually decay.

Julia is drifting northwestward at about 3 kt embedded within very
light steering flow. Most of the global models keep a low meandering
over water off the southeast U.S. coast, and so does the NHC
forecast. Some global models actually regenerate the low, but given
the strong shear, this solution does not seem realistic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 30.6N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 30.9N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 32.5N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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