[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 172034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Despite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce
enough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low.  It appears
that a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the
depression is providing a more favorable environment for convection
than anticipated earlier.  The dynamical models forecast this
trough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several
hours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and
subsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity.
The only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour
point, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as
a remnant low through that time.

Julia is now drifting northwestward.  A low- to mid-level ridge
north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
eastern United States.  The flow between these features should steer
the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
sifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight
westward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 30.5N  76.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 30.9N  76.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z 31.5N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0600Z 32.2N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 32.7N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z 33.0N  78.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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