[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Julia is centered near 30.1N 76.4W at
17/0900 UTC or about 245 nm southeast of Charleston, South
Carolina. Ju7lie remains stationary. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for more
details. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-31N between 69W-74W.

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 18.2N 38.2W at 17/0900 UTC
or about 660 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1350 nm
east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please see the latest
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 18N-22N between 22W-37W and within 60 nm of
the center over the north-northwest quadrant.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of
Africa extends along 18W-19W from 10N-17N with a 1009 mb low
near 12N18W moving west 5 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a global model 700 mb trough and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as shown on the Total Precipitable
water imagery. Numerous strong convection is within 30/45 nm of
a line from 12N21W to 16N17W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 11N13N between 18W-22W and from 13N-
18N west of 23W to just inland over Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system could
bring rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
during the next couple of days. This system has a medium chance
of tropical formation within the next 48 hours.

Near gale-force winds are forecast for the area of Agadir.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 55W
from 11N-21N moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a global model 700 mb trough. No associated
showers or deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

Monsoon trough extends across Africa into the Tropical Atlantic
near 16N16W then south through the 1009 mb low near 12N18W
continuing to 13N32W. The ITCZ extends from 8N42W along 8N47W
11N52W to over Trinidad. Small clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 4N-10N between 13W-21W. Small clusters of
Isolated moderate convection are from 5N-8N between 21W34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight anchored near 26N91W
and extending a upper ridge axis southwest over Mexico near
Tuxpan and northeast over the CONUS to over New England and the
Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak surface ridge extends from
along the eastern seaboard over the northeast Gulf to 26N88W. A
mid level low is centered over the north/central Gulf generating
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms north of
27N to over the north Gulf coast between 84W-95W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 25N-27N 90W-94W. The
diurnal surface trough extends from 22N91W to inland over Mexico
to 17N93W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche south of 21N west of the
surface trough to 95W. the mid level low will continue to bring
showers and thunderstorms to the north Gulf through Sunday. The
diurnal surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula
each evening, moving into the southwest Gulf waters late each
night, then dissipating each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cutoff upper low is over the northeast Caribbean near 20N83W
extending an upper trough south to the coast of Honduras and
north across west Cuba. This is generating scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to the coast of
Cuba between 77W-81W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the coast of Nicaragua and
Honduras north of 12N east of 86W. An upper ridge covers the
central Caribbean anchored over southwest Haiti and covers most
of the remainder of the Caribbean with the exception of the far
northeast Caribbean. A second upper low is over the far
northeast Caribbean centered east of the northern Leeward
Islands near 19N61W and supporting a surface trough that extends
from 21N59W across the Lesser Antilles near between Dominica and
Martinique to 14N62W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 13N-17N between 58W-62W, east of the Leeward
Islands to the surface trough south of 19N, and from 12N-14N
between 62W-65W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under clear
skies this morning. Strong trade winds will develop across the
south/central Caribbean along the coast of Colombia this
afternoon through early Monday. A tropical wave will enter the
east Caribbean Saturday night through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper ridge covers Hispaniola anchored over southwest Haiti.
This is giving the island clear skies again this morning. Fair
weather is expected across the island through Sunday night as
the upper ridge persists. The tropical wave that will enter the
Caribbean Saturday night will reach the island Sunday night into
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Primary features of concern are Tropical Storms Karl in the
central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Julia off the
southeast CONUS. See Special Features above. A small upper low
is over the Bahama Islands near 26N75W. A surface trough extends
from 32N56W to 25N66W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. An
upper ridge anchored near 25N68W with an upper low centered near
21N53W is creating a diffluent environment to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm of a line from
24N57W to 30N56W and north of 30N between 52W-56W. The east
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb
high northeast of the Azores. Tropical Depression Julia is
expected to be a remnant low later today moving slowly northwest
through Sunday then turn northward Sunday night. Tropical Storm
Karl is expected to move west through Sunday night then
turn west-northwest early Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

PAW
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