[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 170833
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Julia continues to consist of a swirl of low clouds, and although
there have been a few intermittent showers, the cyclone has been
without organized deep convection since around 2100 UTC yesterday.
A pair of ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds of 26-27
kt on the north side of the circulation, so the initial intensity is
set to 25 kt for this advisory.  If organized deep convection does
not return, Julia will likely become a remnant low later today.
Given that shear of 20-30 kt is forecast to continue over Julia for
the next 36-48 hours, it seems unlikely that the cyclone will
recover, although occasional bursts of convection are possible.  The
latest ECMWF fields show Julia dissipating in a couple of days, with
the GFS holding onto a weak low into day 4.  As a compromise, the
NHC forecast shows the remnant low dissipating in 72 hours, but this
could occur sooner.

After drifting southwestward earlier, Julia has been stationary
recently.  Steering currents will remain weak, but the shallow
cyclone should gradually turn northwestward and northward as a
low-level ridge currently north of Julia weakens during the next 48
hours.  The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 30.1N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 30.3N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0600Z 30.6N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 31.1N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 31.6N  77.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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