[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Sep 16 09:55:04 CDT 2016
WTNT45 KNHC 161454
TCDAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016
Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning. Any of
the remaining weak-to-moderate convection is the northern side of
the circulation, with cold air wrapping into the center of the
cyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front. The initial intensity
of 55 kt is based on ASCAT data. Ian should move quickly
northeastward and gradually weaken before a larger extratropical low
absorbs it in about 2 days. The track, intensity, and wind radii
forecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction
Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 48.8N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 17/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 59.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 64.5N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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