[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 160839
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center
of Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of
westerly shear affecting the cyclone.  The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this
could be a little generous.  The shear will remain strong for the
next 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry
mid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to
remnant low status.  The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one and reflects this thinking.

Julia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion
estimate is 135/04.  The cyclone is expected to meander erratically
for the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the
period the remnant low should begin to move northeastward.  Not
surprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the
direction of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the
track forecast remains large.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 31.1N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 30.8N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 30.9N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 31.0N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 31.2N  76.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 32.0N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 32.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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