[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 150840
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

Westerly shear of about 25 knots has advected dry air over Julia
and removed all of the deep convection from the cyclone center, with
the coldest cloud tops now more than 100 n mi to the east.  Coastal
observations have shown the winds decreasing overnight, with most
locations now reporting sustained winds of 20 to 25 kt.  Based on
these data, Julia is downgraded to a depression with an initial
intensity of 30 kt, which is in agreement with a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Despite the
cyclone being situated over warm SSTs, persistent shear and dry air
should result in little change in intensity during the next few
days.  Remnant low status is forecast at 72 hours, but this could
occur much sooner if organized deep convection does not return.  The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 4-5 days, consistent with
the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Julia has moved little overnight, and the initial motion estimate is
a slow eastward drift at 2 kt.  The shallow cyclone is expected to
continue drifting eastward today and then meander in weak steering
currents until dissipation.  This forecast is based on the latest
GFS and ECMWF tracks and is similar to the previous official
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 32.0N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 32.0N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 32.0N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 32.0N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 31.9N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 31.9N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z 32.0N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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