[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141142
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 14/1200 UTC is near 31.2N
81.7W, or about 10 nm to the W of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is
moving north, or 010 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1011 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong within 160 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 14/0900 UTC is near 29.3N
53.0W. Ian is moving northward, or 350 degrees, 13 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 32N to 33N
between 50W and 53W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from
27N to 31N between 50W and 51W. A surface trough is 360 nm to
the south of Ian, along 22N51W 15N57W 09N61W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 30 nm
to 60 nm on either side of the trough from 16N northward.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 21N
southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
16N. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from
15N to 18N between 23W and 25W, in parts of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 20N
southward. The wave has been re-positioned based on a long-term
loop of satellite images. Convective precipitation: any
precipitation is embedded in the monsoon trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania and Senegal near 17N17W, to the 1009 mb low pressure
center that along the 23W/24W tropical wave, to 14N30W and
09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W to 07N48W and 05N51W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong within 120 nm on either side of 13N24W
10N40W 08N46W 07N56W. isolated moderate from 03N to 10N between
11W and 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, from
90W eastward, with a trough. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the southwest
of the line that runs from 90W at the Louisiana coast to the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 88W. A 1012 mb low
pressure center is near 26N92.5W. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate covers the northeastern two-thirds of the area.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...TEXAS: MVFR
in Falfurrias, and in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LOUISIANA: MVFR in
Galliano and Slidell. light rain in Boothville, and around the
New Orleans metropolitan area. ALABAMA: IFR at Fort Rucker and
in Dothan. FLORIDA: LIFR to IFR in the Panama City metropolitan
area, and in Marianna. light rain in Apalachicola. MVFR in Perry
and Cross City. MVFR in Saint Petersburg.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the
Caribbean Sea, that is to the east of the line that runs from
Haiti, toward the coastal border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
The cyclonic wind flow has to do with the Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea trough that is along 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to
15N74W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N
northward between 70W and 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.28 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe and in Bermuda.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W 11N80W, beyond northwestern
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia from 13N southward.
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 14N between
80W and 84W, off the coast of Nicaragua, and inland in
Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N67W, across
Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, and into the
southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W
and 81W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in the
Dominican Republic: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago:
MVFR. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current
cyclonic wind flow and trough will cover the area for most of
the day one, followed by SW wind flow. More SW wind flow will
continue for day two. A ridge will be to the south of the
Dominican Republic at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge.
Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola for day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows easterly wind flow will
be moving across the area during the next 48 hours, with a large-
scale Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. It is possible that
there may be some variations in the easterly wind flow, such
as NE-to-E and E-to-SE, during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

from 20N northward to the west of the 29N56W-to-Hispaniola upper
level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper
level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N56W cyclonic circulation
center, to 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean
Sea, into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 58W and 75W. Isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 70W and 81W.

An upper level trough is along 24N28W 16N36W 14N40W 11N45W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N to
27N between 18W and 45W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 21N northward between Africa and 47W. A 1024 mb high
pressure center is near 33N41W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N between 60W and 80W.
A cold front passes through Morocco near 31N10W to 31N20W and
31N23W. A stationary front continues from 31N23W to 34N30W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 28N
northward between Africa and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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