[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 140847
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Julia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms
primarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this
activity has become a little more separated from the center
overnight.  The strong winds that occurred during the evening along
the northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast
of southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting
wind gusts to tropical storm force.  Julia should gradually weaken
during the next day or so due to continued land interaction and
westerly shear.  The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to
weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low
on Thursday.  This is supported by the global models, which show the
low filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36
hours.

Julia is moving northward at about 6 kt.  The tropical cyclone is
forecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern
Georgia during the next couple of days.  The track guidance has
shifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These
rains could result in flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 30.9N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/1800Z 31.6N  81.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  15/0600Z 31.9N  81.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1800Z 32.1N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z 32.2N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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