[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 140224
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...
...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach,
Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach to Altahama Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case, tropical
storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.6 West. Julia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a reduction in forward
speed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Little change
in strength is expected tonight.  Julia is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. Recent
observations indicate that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are
occurring along the northeast coast of Florida from Ponte Vedra
northward to the mouth of the St. Johns River.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the
tropical storm warning area.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near
the northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coastlines
through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further
compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and
stream discharges.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible tonight
through Wednesday morning across parts of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin
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