[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 27.0N 52.7W at 13/2100 UTC
or about 705 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving north-northwest
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Numerous strong
convection is within 45 nm of 28N from 51W-54W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection covers the remainder of the area
from 27N-32N between 50W-55W.

A 1011 mb low is inland over the Florida peninsula near Daytona
Beach with a surface trough extending from off the Georgia coast
near 31N81W through the low to 28N82W. This system is producing
showers and thunderstorms inland Florida. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-31N west of 79W
with isolated showers and thunderstorms covering the area north
of 25N west of 75W. This system is generating strong winds with
frequent gusts to gale force along the coast of Florida from
Melbourne to Jacksonville. Gale conditions will continue through
14/0600 UTC tonight. Please see the High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This
system has been maintaining its organization through the
afternoon and early evening, and advisories will likely be
initiated later this evening. There is a high chance of tropical
development over the next 48 hours as the system moves north-
northwestward at 8 to 13 kt. Please see the Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 20N23W
through a 1009 mb low near 15N21W to 12N19W moving northwest 5
to 10 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave is to the east of a 700 mb
low based on the global models and is embedded within a broad
surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. Although this system has a low chance of tropical
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. Clusters
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N17N
between 20W-26W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 37W
from 10N-19N moving west near 25 kt over the past 24 hours.
Although this wave coincides with 600 to 800 satellite winds,
the 700 mb global model does not support a wave in this
location. No associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W and continues through the 1009 mb low near
15N21W to 9N31W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N45W
8N51W to South America near 7N59W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm either
side of the monsoon trough between 32W-37W and within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper trough covers central Gulf of Mexico centered
near 27N87W and supporting surface trough that extends from
28N93W through a 1012 mb low near 26N90W to 24N86W. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of
87W from 26N-30N with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60/75 nm north of the surface trough. An
upper ridge extends across the northwest Caribbean then into the
west Atlantic creating a diffluent environment over the
southeast Gulf to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 28N between 81W-86W. The 1011 mb low in
the central Gulf will drift westward while dissipating by late
Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge extends from west to east across south Mexico
into the northwest Caribbean near Belize then continues
northeast across central Cuba into the west Atlantic. A cutoff
upper low is centered south of Haiti near 16N72W covering the
central Caribbean. A second upper ridge anchored in the
east/central Atlantic extends across the west Tropical Atlantic
and the remainder of the east Caribbean. Afternoon scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed inland over
Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola are now moving south into the
Caribbean waters within 60 nm along the coastlines. The monsoon
trough extends from over Colombia near 11N75W then across
Nicaragua into the east Pacific region near 11N84W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm along
the immediate coast of Colombia and Nicaragua. Weak high
pressure over the west Atlantic will maintain light to moderate
trade winds across the basin through the end of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed over the central portion of the island again this
evening. The upper trough will persist across the island
through Wednesday then shift west Thursday through the end of
the week. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the end of the week when a clearing trend
beginning Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The activity over the far west Atlantic is due to a 1011 mb low
that is inland over northeast Florida and is in the Special
Features. Please see above. An upper ridge axis extends from the
northwest Caribbean across Cuba along 23N80W to beyond 32N75W
enhancing the activity described above. The west Atlantic is
dominated by a weak surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high
near 33N71W. A broad upper ridge is in the east/central Atlantic
near 21N49W extending a ridge axis southwest to over the east
Caribbean. Beneath this upper ridge is a weak surface trough
that extends from 21N52W to 15N57W with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm either side of the
trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
further north within 30/45 nm of line from 26N49W to 21N50W and
south of the surface trough from 10N-13N between 57W-63W
including the Windward Islands. The east Atlantic is dominated
by a second surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high near the
Azores and and a 1023 mb high near 32N40W. West Atlantic surface
ridge will persist through the end of the week.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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