[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 13/0300 UTC is near 23.5N
51.5W. Ian is moving north-northwestward, or 330 degrees, 11
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50
knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 100 nm
to 250 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 21N
southward. Convective precipitation: embedded in the monsoon
trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 13N
southward. Convective precipitation: embedded in the monsoon
trough.

A tropical wave is inland, along 90W, from 20N in the Yucatan
Peninsula southward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
from in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Guatemala.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 13N20W, to 11N31W and 06N45W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 210 nm on either side of 15N17W 10N30W 05N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the central Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire area.
A surface trough is along 26N92W, to a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 25N87W, to 24N84W. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate to the east of the line 29N91W 24N89W 21N88W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KEHC.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/no
ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to
do with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is along
23N61W, across Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, and
to 12N78W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 67W and 76W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.31 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 11N between 74W in northern Colombia
and 82W, beyond southeastern Nicaragua. Convective
precipitation: Possible rainshowers in remnant debris clouds,
that are from 12N southward from 76W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 23N61W, across
Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, and to 12N78W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 67W and 76W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: few
cumulonimbus clouds and a ceiling at 6000 feet. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow and a trough will cover the area for most of
the next 48 hours. SW wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during the last 12 hours or so, as the trough slides westward
into the Windward Passage. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that easterly wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
the next 48 hours. The easterly wind flow is related to large-
scale anticyclonic wind flow, from the Atlantic Ocean, into
parts of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that NE-to-E wind flow will be moving across the area
during the next 48 hours, with a large-scale Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

from 20N northward to the west of the 32N56W-to-Hispaniola upper
level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper
level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward 59W and 76W.

A surface trough is along 30N81W, to a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N79W, to 24N79W, between the northwestern
Bahamas and Florida. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 24N to 27N between 78W and 80W. scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 29N to 32N between 74W and the U.S.A. coast.
Significant development of this system is unlikely since the low
is expected to move inland over the central and northern
portions of the Florida peninsula through tonight. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to continue in the
northwestern Bahamas during the late night and early morning
hours, and then spread across parts of the Florida peninsula
later today.

An upper level trough extends from 32N56W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N58W, to 23N61W,
across Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, to 12N78W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 20N northward
between 57W and 74W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from
15N northward between 67W and 76W.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N14W cyclonic circulation
center, across the Canary Islands, to 20N27W and 15N34W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N to
30N between 13W and 15W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between Africa and 45W. A 1023 mb high
pressure center is near 31N43W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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