[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 09/1500 UTC, the 1007 mb surface low and tropical wave
analyzed over the central Atlantic near 50W are now T.S. Ian,
centered near 21.8N/50.4W. Ian is moving northwest at around 11
kt. Minimum central pressure is 1007 mb and maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 20N-28N between 45W-51W. For more details, please see the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 16N21W to 04N21W, moving west at around 10-15 kt
within the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded in an area of
abundant moisture as depicted in TPW imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 09N19N between 17W-27W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 15N31W to 04N32W, moving west at around 10-15 kt during the
past 24 hours. The wave is ahead of a surge of moisture as noted
in TPW imagery. No significant convection is related to this
feature at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and Central
America wit axis extending from 20N87W to 12N87W, moving west near
05-10 kt during the past 24 hours. A 700 mb inverted trough is
noted in model guidance with this feature. Isolated moderate
convection is observed along the northern portion of the wave
north of 17N between 85W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across western Africa reaching the
eastern Atlantic near 15N17W to 11N24W to 09N35W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave along 21W, isolated
moderate convection is from 07N-10N between 24W-28W and from
05N-08N between 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough covers the basin with axis along 88W. A
diffluent flow prevails over the eastern Gulf waters supporting
scattered moderate convection mainly east of 89W. At the surface;
a weak 1013 mb low is centered north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
24N87W. To the north; a surface trough extends from 28N86W to
30N83W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate easterly
flow across the basin. During the next 24 hours, the upper-level
trough will move eastward enhancing convection across the Florida
Peninsula and western Atlantic. The surface low will dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the western
Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A
diffluent flow aloft is enhancing scattered moderate convection
across the western portion of the basin mainly west of 80W. To the
south; the Monsoon Trough extends along 11N enhancing convection
south of 13N between 74W-84W. Fair weather prevails east of 74W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
whole area. Expect during the next 24 hours for the wave in the
western Caribbean to continue moving west away from the area.
Convection will prevail west of 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon hours due to daytime heating, orographic lifting, and
abundant low-level moisture.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.S. Ian has developed in the central Atlantic while two tropical
waves are moving over the eastern portion of the area. Please
refer to the sections above for details. A surface trough extends
across the western Atlantic from 29N75W to 23N77W supporting
scattered moderate convection between 74W-79W. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a surface ridge, anchored by three high
centers located near 33N73W, 32N55W, and 31N40W. Expect during the
next 24 hours for convection to continue across the western
Atlantic. T.S Ian will move northwest enhancing winds/seas. The
tropical waves will continue moving west with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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