[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving over the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
extending from 17N24W to 05N25W, moving west near 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a broad surge
of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern portion
of the wave where it interacts with the Monsoon Trough south of
11N between 20W-29W.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis
extending from 21N57W to 08N60W, moving west near 15 to 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. Isolated convection is observed along the
southern tip of the wave affecting portions of Guyana and
Venezuela at this time.

A tropical wave is moving over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N76W to 15N80W to 09N81W, moving west-northwest
near 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the wave
between 74W-85W affecting portions of eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and
the Windward Passage.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N17W and continues along 12N20W to 07N47W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 25W,
scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of
the boundary between 30W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the southeast Gulf near
24N87W supporting isolated convection south of 28N and east of
93W. At the surface, a ridge extends across the northern half of
the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over the western
Atlantic. Scatterometer data and surface observations depict light
to gentle easterly winds across the whole area. Expect for the
surface ridge to prevail during the next 24 hours. A tropical wave
will approach to the southeast Gulf waters by late Thursday/early
Friday enhancing convection across the Florida Straits/Keys.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main features across the basin at this time are two tropical
waves: one is moving across the western portion of the basin
while the other is approaching from the east. Please refer to the
section above for details. Clusters of moderate convection are
developing over northern Colombia and Venezuela and moving west
affecting the southern Caribbean waters mainly south of 12N.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect for the tropical wave along 79W to continue moving across
the west Caribbean through Thursday reaching the Yucatan peninsula
by Friday. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean
by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over Haiti at
this time supported by daytime heating and the proximity of a
tropical wave currently moving across eastern Cuba. As the wave
moves away from the island, the convection will dissipate and
fair weather will prevail through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A pair of 1023 mb surface highs are
centered over the west Atlantic west near 30N77W and 33N71W. To
the east; a frontal trough extends from 28N75W to 31N69W.
Scattered convection is observed along and south of this trough
affecting the Bahama Islands and adjacent waters west of 70W.
Another surface trough was analyzed from 27N64W to 31N61W. No
significant convection accompanies this feature at this time. A
frontal trough extends over the central Atlantic from 28N44W to
31N27W with isolated showers. To the south; a 1012 mb surface low
is centered near 15N53W with isolated moderate convection from
14N17N between 53W-55W. A surface ridge is building over the
central Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near 37N46W. Expect
through the next 24 hours for the ridge in the west Atlantic to
prevail. The tropical waves will continue moving west with
convection. The surface low along 46W will persist through the
next 24 hours enhancing convection across the west-central
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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