[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa with axis
extending from 18N19W to 06N20W, moving west near 15 to 20 kt
over the past 18 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated
convection is observed across the southern portion of the wave
mainly south of 10N and east of 21W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N40W to 07N43W, moving west near 10-15 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave is along the leading edge of a
airmass where Saharan dust and dry air prevail limiting
significant convection.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 22N69W to 10N71W, moving west 10 to 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery and is at
the southwest side of an upper-level ridge which enhances its
associated convection. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-
20N between 67W-75W affecting Hispaniola and its adjacent waters
at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa then is interrupted by a
tropical wave along 20W. The Monsoon Trough then resumes from
07N22W to 10N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N50W to 10N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the Monsoon Trough.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb
high centered over the southeast CONUS near 35N86W. A mid-level
shortwave trough extends from 28N90W over south Louisiana to Lake
Charles generating isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 26N
between 87W-91W. To the east; a surface trough extends across the
southern portion of the Florida Peninsula supporting scattered
moderate convection over the adjacent Gulf waters mainly south of
27N and east of 82W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing across the area. Expect
during the next 24 hours for an upper-level low to move northwest
from the western Caribbean enhancing convection across the
southeast Gulf waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main focus at this time is the tropical wave that extends
from the Dominican Republic to Venezuela. Please see the section
above for details. An elongated upper-level low extends from
central Cuba to Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is
observed to the east of this feature mainly north of 12N between
72W- 86W. A broad upper-level ridge is anchored north of the
Virgin Islands covering the remainder of the Caribbean. To the
south; the presence of the Monsoon Trough just north of
Panama/Costa Rica is enhancing scattered moderate convection south
of 11N between 78W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. Expect during he next 24 hours for
the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection.
The next wave is expected to enter the basin by late Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving across
the island due a tropical wave. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue through the next 24 hours, but weakening as the wave
continues moving west.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends
across the western Atlantic from the Florida Peninsula near
26N80W to 31N69W. Scattered light to moderate convection prevails
across The Florida Peninsula and northern Bahama Islands within
100 nm south of the trough. To the south; the tropical wave
currently moving over the Central Caribbean is supporting fresh to
strong winds just north of Hispaniola between 72W-76W. To the
east; a surface trough extends from 32N72W to 24N59W with isolated
showers between 56W- 60W. A weak 1017 mb low is centered near
22N47W with no significant convection. South of this low, a 1012
mb low is centered near 13N48W with isolated convection from 13N-
16N between 46W-50W. A weakening stationary front extends across
the central Atlantic from 29N47W to 31N34W. No significant
convection is related to this boundary at this time. Expect for
the tropical waves to continue moving west with convection. The
fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola will decrease. The
surface troughs will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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