[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 061446
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016

There has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the
last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system
with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west
of the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly
decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50
kt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken
during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing
and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the
new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm
force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that
time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system
moving eastward across the New England States.

Hermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3.  A slow
and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely
during the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should move
northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.
The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track
after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models.

The tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued
later today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 39.5N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  07/0000Z 39.3N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/1200Z 39.4N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/0000Z 39.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/1200Z 40.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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