[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine at 04/1800 UTC is
near 37.2N 69.3W, about 265 nm to the south-southeast of the
eastern tip of Long Island, and about 281 nm to the east-
southeast of Ocean City in Maryland. Hermine is moving ENE, or
70 degrees, 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with
gusts to 75 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered to
numerous strong in the Atlantic Ocean from 38.5N to 40N between
67W and 69W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up
well in infrared satellite imagery. A 1012 mb low pressure
center is along the tropical wave near 19N. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 20N to
27N between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate from 17N to 18N
between 26W and 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1008 mb low
pressure center is along the wave near 14.5N. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 12N to 16N between 56W and
60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from
11N to 18N between 55W and 70W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 21N
southward. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered to
scattered strong strong is in an area of upper level diffluent
wind flow, from 12N southward from 78w westward. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is moving through the southwestern corner
of the Caribbean Sea, and northeast wind flow is moving from
Central America into the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon
trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, across Panama near 09N80W,
beyond northwestern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong elsewhere from 20N southward from 78W eastward.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border area of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N17W and 06N22W. The monsoon
trough has been broken up by the surface wind flow. The monsoon
trough continues from l0N25W to 12N29W 12N42W, to 13N51W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong
from 03N to 10N between 09W and 32W, from 06N to 13N between 30W
and 50W. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 14N between 50W
and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the
northwestern corner of the area, along the Texas coast.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
23N northward from 90W westward. A surface trough is in the
coastal plains of the U.S.A. from the northern part of Florida,
near 30N82W, to Texas. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either
side of 29N87W 26N92W 25N97W. Isolated moderate in the coastal
plains of the U.S.A. from the upper Texas coast to northeastern
Florida.

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico, in the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 24N97.5W to
20N97W to 17N95W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate
to strong from 23N to 25N between 96W and 98W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVOA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 25N62W
cyclonic circulation center, to 21N65W, to a 16N72W Caribbean
Sea cyclonic circulation center, toward the coast of Panama
along 77W/78W. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent. Comparatively drier air in subsidence surrounds the
trough. The trough is wedged between two areas of large-scale
upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

Convective precipitation covers the eastern sections of the
Caribbean Sea, with the 58W/59W tropical wave. Convective
precipitation also covers the westernmost sections of the
Caribbean Sea, with the 82W/83W tropical wave.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...10.39 in Acapulco
in Mexico, 0.98 in Trinidad, 0.37 in Veracruz, 0.33 in Kingston
in Jamaica, 0.28 in Guadeloupe, 0.25 in Montego Bay in Jamaica,
and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola now.
This wind flow is related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea
trough.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago: MVFR and few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area for another 12 hours or
so, followed by S wind flow for the rest of day one. Day two
will consist of S wind flow, followed by SE wind flow. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of NE
to E wind flow. Day two will consist of E to SE wind flow.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that E to SE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 29N58W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 25N62W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N65W, to a
16N72W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center, toward the
coast of Panama along 77W/78W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

An upper level trough extends from a 28N38W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N39W, to 17N42W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 17N northward between 30W and 50W.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N14W cyclonic circulation
center, to 18N18W, along the coast of Mauritania. Cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 18N northward from 25W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N25W, to 29N35W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center
that is near 29N64W, a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near
27N64W, to 27N74W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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