[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

...HERMINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 72.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast and the north with a
decrease in forward speed are expected on Sunday, followed by a slow
northward to northwestward motion through Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected tonight.  After that,
the cyclone is expected to intensify to hurricane force Sunday and
Sunday night.

Hermine has a large wind field.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday,
and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions
along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during
the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through
tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from
Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Persons within
these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and
property from rising water.  Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.  There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will mainly remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. However, isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are still possible along the
immediate coastline of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and up into
southeast New England.

SURF:  Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday.  These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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