[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031805 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine at 03/1800 UTC is
near 36.0N 74.2W, about 78 nm to the east of Duck in North
Carolina, and about 116 nm to the east-southeast of Norfolk in
Virginia. Hermine is moving east, or 85 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong in the Atlantic Ocean
from 35N to 36N between 69W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong elsewhere from 35N to 41N between 65W and
74W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up
well in infrared satellite imagery and in observations from the
Cabo Verde Islands. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the
tropical wave near 17N. Convective precipitation: Scattered
strong from 11N to 14N between 25W and 27W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 14N to 21N between 22W and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A 1009 mb low
pressure center is along the wave near 13.5N. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 13N to 16.5N between 49W
and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 17N
southward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 13N to 18N in eastern Jamaica between
74W and 80W, and from Panama to 12N between 77W and 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 16N17W to 12N30W, to 11N40W 10N55W. Convective
precipitation: Numerous strong from 12N to 15N between Africa
and 18W, possibly with the next tropical wave. Isolated moderate
to locally strong from 05N to 12N between 30W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough, that was to the southwest of Hermine a few
days ago, remains along 29N83W 27N88W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong within 30 nm on either side of 26N88W 25N91W
23N92W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60
nm on either side of 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, 29N82W in
Florida, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N95W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 90W
westward. A dissipating stationary front is in the coastal
plains of the U.S.A. from Florida to Texas. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
to 29N from 90W westward. Some areas of rain and fog also have
been observed along the frontal boundary.

A diurnal surface trough is moving through the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 94W from 24N southward.
Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 19N to 24N between 93W and the coast of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGBK and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Harlingen and Weslaco. Lightning to the distant
south of Edinburg. LOUISIANA and MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings.
ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores and in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR in
Crestview and Mary Esther, in the Panama City metropolitan area,
in Tallahassee. Light rain in Cross City and Brooksville, and in
the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N85W.
This is the same cyclonic circulation center that was affecting
Hispaniola directly a few days ago. Upper level NE wind flow now
is moving across Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W westward. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate elsewhere from 19N southward
from 80W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N64W, about
100 nm to the SE of Puerto Rico. A trough extends from the
16N64W center to 11N67W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 14N between 63W and 67W.
The cyclonic center is surrounded by comparatively drier air in
subsidence, that is apparent in water vapor imagery. The drier
air covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 73W
eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea between 73W and 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.21 in Acapulco
in Mexico, 0.11 in Trinidad, and 0.06 in Bermuda,

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in northern Colombia, through
09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica. A tropical wave is along
76W/77W from 17N southward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow from
an inverted trough in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean
Sea covers the area from 12N southward from 79W westward.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 12N to 13N between 82W and 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level northeasterly wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
now.

A surface trough extends from 25N73W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the southeastern Bahamas, into the Windward passage.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 27N
between 70W and 77W, across parts of the Bahamas and Cuba.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of NE wind flow for the first half of the day,
and then cyclonic wind flow with a cyclonic circulation center
and a trough. Expect S wind flow for day two, as the cyclonic
circulation center and trough move westward. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of NE to E
wind flow, with an inverted trough at the end of the day. Expect
easterly wind flow during day two, as the inverted trough from
day one moves westward slowly. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that SE wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 28N57W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N64W, to 11N67W in the Caribbean Sea. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N34W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between
30W and 47W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N13W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
area from 23N northward from 18W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N26W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near
29N48W, a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N64W,
toward the central part of the Florida east coast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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