[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 031758
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

...VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE FLOODING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks near latitude
36.0 North, longitude 74.2 West.  Hermine has been moving toward the
east at around 10 mph (17 km/h) during the past few hours.  A turn
toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed are expected by
tonight, followed by a slow northward motion through early Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will move away from the
North Carolina coast this afternoon and meander offshore of the
Delmarva Peninsula Sunday night and early Monday.

Surface data and data from the aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Hermine is
expected to be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.

Hermine is producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds that
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.  A National
Ocean Service station at Duck Pier in North Carolina recently
reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind gust of 72
mph (117 km/h).  A National Ocean Service station at the Coast Guard
station at Hatteras, North Carolina recently reported a sustained
wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).  NOAA buoy
44014, located about 75 miles (120 km) east of Virginia Beach
recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of
69 mph (112 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.
Wind gusts of hurricane force are occurring over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and will continue through this
afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
by late Sunday or Sunday night.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the
next few hours in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours
from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Persons
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.  Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.  There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and
the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning.
Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to
4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey,
and Long Island through Monday morning.

SURF:  Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through the weekend.  These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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